How it works

Posterwatch predicts festival lineups. It is not affiliated with any festival, promoter, or agency, and nothing here is an announcement.

What you see on a board

• Confirmed: on the festival's own announcement.
• Rumored: a named outlet has reported the booking, or people are betting on it. These rows show a percentage. A report of talks counts for less than a report of a done deal, and a reported pass lowers the odds.
• Our pick: no report either way, so this is the model's call. Picks show a word, not a number. In past seasons a Strong bet played about one time in two, a Good chance one in four, a Fair chance one in five, a Possible one in nine and a Long shot one in sixteen.
• Not playing: the artist has said no, or has a show somewhere else that makes it impossible. The reason is on the row.

A green arrow means the odds rose in the latest update and a red one means they fell. The number beside it is the size of the move in points.

Where a pick comes from

Every festival books in its own way, so each one is measured on its own past lineups.

• The road to this festival. Acts who play certain festivals tend to turn up at certain others a year or two later. We measure how often that has happened for every pair of festivals we track, including smaller ones and ones overseas.
• Whether this festival rebooks. Some bring back a good share of last year's bill. Most bring back almost none of it. A repeat only counts for as much as that festival's own record says it should.
• What is already booked this year. A slot at another festival from the same promoter helps. A show nearby around the same dates hurts, because festivals write contracts that block it.
• The tour. Announced dates near the festival that week are a good sign. Dates on another continent that weekend are a bad one.
• The act. How high they have been billed, how long they have been on the circuit, whether a record is due, and where they are from.

About a third of a typical lineup is acts who have never played a festival we track. Nobody on a board got there without some record, so those names are ones we cannot call yet.

How we grade ourselves

When a lineup comes out, the board is frozen as it stood before the announcement and compared with the poster. We also test the model on past seasons it was not shown, giving it only what was public at the time. Both sets of results are on the How we did page, misses included.

Sources

Lineup history from Wikipedia, official posters and Setlist.fm. Artist identities from MusicBrainz. Tour dates and artist photos from Ticketmaster. Reports from the music press, named on the row. Market prices from Kalshi.